Focus on the people
By Shahab Usto
AFTER remaining in the eye of terror for the last eight years Pakistan seems to be finally graduating from one-man rule to governance characterised by participatory politics, diplomatic initiatives and combined civil-military efforts to deal with the war.
Such a view emerges from the recent developments on the political, military and diplomatic fronts.
On the political front, the government has come around to accepting the fact that it cannot fight the war without broad-based political support. Therefore, the in-camera joint parliamentary session was convened rightly to bring on board not only the parliamentarians but also the entire national leadership. On the diplomatic front, despite Richard Boucher’s recent reiteration of Washington’s ‘resolve’ to fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the Nato-US combine has changed its tone vis-à-vis the Taliban, showing its willingness to co-opt the ‘moderate’ Taliban.
In fact the change was overdue. The US has spent $140bn and suffered hundreds of causalities in Afghanistan, yet the Karzai government has utterly failed to deliver. Therefore, the Saudis are now using back-door diplomacy to knit a modus vivendi between the Karzai government and the Taliban.
The Pakistani military leadership is also stressing the need to enlist the peoples’ support against this war. It is a major departure from the policy pursued by Gen Musharraf which envisaged fighting the war by relying on the US-backed security and intelligence apparatus, completely ignoring the role of the political parties.
Finally, it is encouraging that the local tribesmen are increasingly coming to grips with the impending realities of the war. Already sick of the war crimes committed by the Taliban in Fata, Swat and other settled areas, they are now wary of the intentions of the US president-elect who has declared Fata to be more ‘dangerous’ than Iraq. Therefore they do not want this war to go on and turn their habitat into an inferno. Hence, efforts are being made to raise lashkars, private tribal militias, to resist and eject the terrorists. No wonder they are facing violent reprisals from the terrorists.
As a result of the aforesaid developments, Pakistan seems to have another chance to end this war and disentangle itself from the Afghan imbroglio. The first chance was squandered in search of strategic depth in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of the Soviet troops in 1989. However, the objective conditions are now more favourable than in 1989.
Today Pakistan has a vocal media. The coalition government represents large sections of the liberal, conservative, religious and nationalist opinions. Importantly the military is more willing than ever before to work with the government to end this war. The US and the international community are also mindful of the regional and international repercussions of Pakistan’s failure to win this war; hence, Pakistan was a prime theme of the US presidential debates.
The only question that racks the mind is: will our leadership rise to the occasion and seize this historic opportunity? The political leadership is divided into three camps with regard to the war. First, the coalition partners minus the JUI-F seem to stand closer to the US policy: fighting terrorism militarily and lately also engaging the moderate Taliban. But the US military strategy has failed militarily; while it’s too early to judge the success of the talks.
Second, the Islamists, including the Tehrik-i-Insaf and a section of the PML-Q, are against the military oppression in Fata and Swat. They want Pakistan to de-link its war from that of the US and hold direct talks with the Taliban. What is overlooked is the fact that we are fighting a regional war. Ideology, geography, logistics, targets and enemies are all intertwined. The Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda will not fight a war in Afghanistan without intruding into Fata. The Pakistani Taliban cannot live in peace while the war is going on in Afghanistan. Nor can Pakistan economically and militarily afford to deal with extremism while leaving the US to fend for itself in Afghanistan. After all much of Pakistan’s current woes emanate from the war. We rightly deserve US financial and military aid.
Third, the PML-N which enjoys a sizable presence in the parliament and considerable influence in Punjab is treading pragmatically. It is trying to sit in both the camps, condemning both the US and the Taliban. The PML-N believes we are fighting America’s war. But the party does not explain how we can rid ourselves of the war given our economic malaise and the long-term American involvement in the region.
Thus, the three camps do not propose a workable solution. Not because the arguments are fallacious but because they are misdirected. The focus is the extremists, not the local populace that hosts or cohabitate with them. The people are the key to the solution.
In 1969, when the US was engaged in Vietnam and Gen Westmoreland was bragging that America was “winning the war”, Henry Kissinger wrote: “A guerilla war differs from traditional military operation because its key prize is not control of territory but control of the population.” How true in our context. We have miserably failed to convince the extremists of the futility of war because they have acquired through fear or indoctrination a measure of control over the local population.In fact to retain control the Taliban have lately relaxed their strict Sharia-based regimen. They no longer object to music, shaving beards or sowing poppy in Helmand. Yes, when it comes to challenging their writ they react violently. The recent attacks on jirgas are a case in point.
So the watchword is ‘control’ over the lives of the population. The government’s policy should be geared toward neutralising the controlling factors through a combination of diplomatic, military, economic and political initiatives. This is not a war of capturing territories but of hearts and minds.
Indeed both the US and Pakistan have lessons to learn from their histories. The American army was defeated in Vietnam because the people treated it as an occupational force. Our forces were defeated in East Pakistan because the Bengalis treated them as the ‘Punjabi army’.
Therefore the American ‘surge’ policy will not work in this region as long as the people don’t own this war. By winning the hearts of the people Fidel Castro’s 80-odd guerillas overthrew the Batista’s US-backed 50,000-strong Cuban army. Yet, Che Guevara, Castro’s top guerilla, failed in Bolivia because he couldn’t win over the local peasants.
shahabusto@hotmail.com


Vendetta politics
By Simon Tisdall
THE least dismaying aspect of Monday’s) disclosure of a deliberate, codified White House policy of mounting worldwide, covert, cross-border US special forces attacks on Al Qaeda and other selected targets is that there were limits to these operations, albeit self-interested and self-policed.
The most disheartening aspect is the extent to which CIA-directed under-the-radar missions, often amounting to the arbitrary execution of suspects by hit squads with little regard for civilian casualties, resemble the methods of the terrorists they are designed to eradicate.
In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, George Bush repeatedly vowed to hunt down those responsible and their associates. But the danger inherent in such vendetta politics was always that the behaviour of the state would descend to the level of its most bloody-minded tormentors. The abuses subsequently uncovered at Abu Ghraib prison and Guantanamo Bay suggest this is what happened. In its assaults on civil liberties and personal privacy in the “homeland,” the Bush administration again fell below expected standards.
By declaring a “war on terror” of indefinite duration, dedicated to the triumph of the morally good over the evildoers, Bush created a western version of divinely blessed jihad. Increasingly he played by the terrorists’ rules — and increasingly people in the Islamic world died by them.
In this context, news of former defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s classified 2004 order, endorsed by Bush, authorising special forces raids, anywhere, any time, is not a total surprise. According to the New York Times, there have been a dozen or more undisclosed operations since 2004 similar to the ground raids in Syria last month and in Pakistan in September. How many countries have suffered such actions is not known but they include Saudi Arabia, Yemen, some Gulf states, Somalia, and possibly countries in the Maghreb.
These states, in which the US (unlike in Iraq and Afghanistan) is not at war, can hardly be proud of their inability to halt unilateral US operations. Hence perhaps their reluctance to talk about them. But it may also be the case that some governments privately welcome the US taking on militants they cannot, for political or military reasons, confront themselves.
The US has set some self-imposed limits, indicating a sort of target hierarchy. Some raids were called off as too diplomatically damaging. And while the defence secretary can reportedly authorise a raid in the ungoverned spaces of Somalia, similar action in Pakistan or Syria requires presidential approval.
— The Guardian, London


