| November 01, 2008 | Saturday | Ziqa'ad 2, 1429 |
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A sea of troubles
NEWS of the recent terrorist attacks in Assam is further confirmation of the increasing violence that is coming to characterise the subcontinent.
We in Pakistan have long been accustomed to ideological, ethnic and criminal mayhem. But the recent killings of Christians in Orissa, and the endemic Naxalite rebellion in Bihar and elsewhere, remind us of the simmering tensions and resentments that lie just below the surface in India. In Sri Lanka, the vicious civil war grinds on.
Clearly, large chunks of South Asia are becoming virtually ungovernable. And while India has done very well economically, it appears that in large swathes of the country, the secular model enshrined in the constitution is breaking down. If so, this is very bad news indeed.
In one of the most heavily populated areas of the world comprising dozens of ethnic and religious groups, secular democracy is the only system that could bind the subcontinent together. As we have experienced in Pakistan, faith alone is not enough to prevent people from going their own way: had it been, East Pakistan would not have seceded in 1971.
Other parts of the world are not free from the same fissiparous tendencies. In Africa, tribal warfare continues to exact a deadly toll from Darfur to Congo. The Middle East has suffered from a number of wars and civil strife. Several countries in Latin America are wracked by drug-related violence and ideological insurrections. And now, much of the developed world is in the grip of a severe recession. Even the richest countries on the globe contain pockets of shocking poverty.
Wherever one turns one’s gaze, it seems mankind is in the grip of despair and discontent. And the recent inflation in food prices has made millions of poor people even poorer. The current economic meltdown and the vastly expensive bailout of the banking system will ensure that for some time to come, there will be little money given or lent by the rich to the poor. Foreign aid as well as charitable initiatives will be more difficult to push through in these hard times.
Already, Pakistan is having a hard time finding $5bn to shore up its fragile economy. Other countries are similarly placed. Should this global recession continue for some time, it is difficult to imagine how marginal states like Pakistan will cope. While most developed countries have some kind of social net in place for the poorest sections of the population, the poor sink or swim in our part of the world.
After a small dinner party last night, when the other guests had left, I was chatting with Robin, an art dealer who climbs mountains as a hobby. He is currently setting up an NGO to help Nepalese villagers to cope with climate change. Discussing the current doom and gloom, I suggested that this century would be dominated by migration triggered by growing numbers and dysfunctional states. I made the point that many of today’s environmental issues and scarcity of resources were caused by the unrelenting population increase.
Today, the world has around 6.7 billion people living on it. The subcontinent has approximately 1.5 billion of these, with Pakistan home to about 170 million. At Partition in 1947, there were 32 million or so citizens in West Pakistan. We have thus more than quintupled our numbers in 60 years. This fecundity is evident wherever we look: Karachi is now estimated to be home to some 16 million, and the pressure of numbers continues to mount across the country. Power, water and gas are all in short supply, as are school places and hospital beds.
In fact, many of the tensions and violence across the world can be traced to the inexorable geometric increase in the number of people crowding the world. And as we multiply, we place more pressure on the environment, and deplete finite mineral resources. Despite this obvious danger caused by overpopulation, few politicians advocate family planning, and few governments, at least in our part of the world, actively promote the small-family norm.
After listening to my practised rant, Robin disagreed with my thesis that population increase was at the root of most of our problems. He pointed out that heavily populated countries and cities like Holland, Hong Kong and Singapore were doing well. Robin maintained that the real problem was one of governance, and the intelligent use of resources.
Of course, he’s right to a very great extent. China, despite a population of over 1.3 billion, has seen double-digit growth for years, and is projected to overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy by 2030. For all its mistakes and excesses, the Communist Party focused on educating the population, and providing universal health care. Thus, when the country began to take off, there was a healthy, literate workforce upon which its economic transformation rests. And the party continues to maintain discipline and social cohesion.
Increasingly dysfunctional countries like Pakistan are suffering from a double whammy caused by a runaway population, and abysmal levels of governance. Even though the rate of population increase has come down from a rabbit-like three per cent annually to 2.45 per cent, tomorrow’s parents have already been born. And with the growing influence of religion on policies and politicians, population control recedes further into the background.
It has become fashionable to blame the West for all our woes; those of us who advocate restraint in reproduction are immediately accused of being influenced by western ideas. I suppose for these people, it is patriotic to procreate.
Despite our growing numbers, the population of many developed countries is shrinking, or stable. Oddly, this is the source of some joy in our part of the world based on the view that if we can’t outfight the West, we can overrun it with our numbers. But don’t hold your breath: until that happens, there will be a lot of suffering here.
While the population of countries like Japan, Germany and France declines, Muslims at home and in the West are multiplying at a spectacular rate. Families with six children are the norm, rather than the exception. But these scary figures should not obscure the fact that many Muslim countries have failed in providing their people with an education that would have taught them the advantages of smaller families.
irfanhusain@gmail.com
