| December 17, 2008 | Wednesday | Zilhaj 18, 1429 |
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Waiting for the endgame in Sri Lanka
As the fighting for the LTTE’s last bastion of Kilinochchi grinds to its bloody end, the speculation in much of Sri Lanka revolves around what kind of endgame will emerge. Will the Tamil Tigers accept the inevitable, or will they take their war underground? As somebody who has been a regular visitor to Sri Lanka for nearly a decade, I can only hope the government will come up with an offer of autonomy that will be acceptable to the majority of Tamils.
However, despite these pious hopes, my Sri Lankan friends fear that in a triumphalist mood, the government of President Mahinda Rajapakse will not have the acumen and foresight to make an offer generous enough to induce the LTTE to lay down its arms. The other speculation is about the Tamil leader’s fate. Probably the most ruthless terrorist in recent times – a period full of horrible cruelty – Prahbakran has epitomised the fight for Tamil independence for a quarter of a century. Systematically silencing the more democratic voices of Tamil self-rule, Prahbakran has created the most efficient killing machine in the form of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Since the fighting erupted in the north and the east of the island in 1982, he has made his organization a byword for single-minded mayhem. In a scathing report on the LTTE, Human Rights Watch says:
“The LTTE has brutally and systematically abused the Tamil population on whose behalf they claim to fight… and it bears a heavy responsibility for the desperate plight of the civilians in the Vanni … The LTTE, which has been fighting for an independent Tamil state – Tamil Eelam – has a deplorable human rights record. During the past 25 years it has committed innumerable murders of Sinhalese, Muslims and Tamil civilians, political assassinations in Sri Lanka and abroad with high loss of life…
“The LTTE has frequently targeted civilians with bombs and remote-controlled landmines, killed perceived political opponents including many Tamil politicians, journalists, and members of rival organizations, and has forcibly recruited Tamils into its forces, many of them children… In the areas under its control, the LTTE has ruled through denying basic freedoms of expression, association, assembly and movement…The LTTE continues to systematically compel young men and women, including children, to join their forces, and have dramatically increased their forced recruitment practices…”
Unfortunately for the Tamils Prabhakran has claimed to represent, his methods have revolted the world. He has also given successive Sri Lankan governments an excuse for using means that have often been indistinguishable from those being employed by the LTTE. Indeed, the Tamils of Sri Lanka, around a fifth of the population, have been singularly ill served by Prabhakran and the LTTE. Their best chance for a decent deal on autonomy came and went with the last presidential election three years ago.
Running neck and neck with Mahinda Rajapakse was Ranil Wickramsinghe. As prime minister, Ranil (as he is popularly known) had come very close to negotiating a breakthrough after signing a ceasefire with the LTTE. Unfortunately for him and for Sri Lanka, he was dismissed by Mrs Chandrika Bandarnaike, the previous president. She was widely seen as resenting Ranil, who was deeply engaged in the peace talks. In the presidential elections, she could not be a candidate as she had served two terms, and put her weight behind Rajapakse, a long-time supporter. The polls had Ranil ahead, but at the last minute, the LTTE announced a boycott, and forced Tamils in the north and east not to vote at gunpoint. These votes were crucial to Ranil’s chances, and he lost by a heartbreakingly small margin.
Since that moment, it has been downhill for the peace process. Apart from the normal claims about sharp electoral practices, a rumour did the rounds that the Tamil leader had been paid a large amount to boycott the elections, thereby ensuring Rajapakse’s victory. Part of the problem has been the presence of nationalist groups like the JVP and the newly created Monks’ Party in the ruling coalition. These parties oppose any concessions to the Tamils. But since coming to power, this government has relentlessly pursued a policy of crushing the LTTE on the battlefield before sitting with the Tamils to negotiate. Inevitably, this hard-line strategy has caused great suffering among the civilians caught up in the fighting.
The war has also caused tourists to stay away, hitting the already fragile economy. The total government debt has risen from 2,948 billion rupees to 3,335 billion rupees over the last year. Inflation is running at well over 20 per cent. The price of tea, the major export commodity, has fallen, while oil prices rose sharply between 2007 and 2008. Despite this bad economic news, the rupee has been holding its own against the greenback, at around 110 rupees per dollar for the last year.
Clearly, Sri Lanka would have made tremendous progress had it not been for a debilitating civil war that has been going on for the last quarter century. With a literate work force and wonderfully diverse scenery, the country could become a hub for tourism and manufacture. As it is, unemployment is high, and wages depressed due to a faltering economy. In the south, where our dream house is finally ready, the presence of foreigners is rare, and the locals are often idle as a result in a region with little industry or agriculture.
According to a conflict resolution theory, one side of has to be decisively defeated before there can be peace. Once the dominant figure of Prabhakran is no longer on the scene, it is entirely possible that the government can co-opt the Tamil population into cooperating with Colombo, just as it has with the Eastern Province where the LTTE’s grip was broken a couple of years ago.
So while the Tamils have a strong case for greater autonomy, they lost international support because the LTTE was seen to be such an oppressive force. Intelligent and hard working, they did not deserve the kind of vicious leadership that seized control of their destiny. Currently viewed with suspicion, they may yet emerge as Sri Lanka’s most dynamic ethnic group once the fighting is over.
